“Palm is essentially an accelerating death spiral.”

That’s not a good thing to hear, and given yesterday’s bleak financial report, we can’t say we disagree (though we do maintain that it is possible to pull out of a death spiral). That little nugget comes from Ilya Grozovsky, analyst at Morgan Joseph & Co. As CNN Money noted, Grozovsky was one of two analysts to cut their price targets on Palm stock to a heart-stopping $0/share. By valuing the stock at zero, Grozovsky and Peter Misek of Canaccord Adams are declaring that Palm the company is worth nothing.

Those two doomsayers aren’t the only ones kicking Palm to the curb. At this point, not a single analyst will recommend buying Palm stock. Given Palm’s current cash burn rate, most estimate that Palm has only about twelve months to execute a turnaround or find a suitor with deep pockets.

read more

READ THE FULL ARTICLE >>

We haven’t been hearing much about when webOS will make its way to AT&T, but one analyst believes that the launch (which was never announced or dated) has been delayed and that Ma Bell isn’t so hot on webOS anymore. As noted at Barron’s, Peter Misek of Canadian bank Canaccord Adams has both cut his forecasts for Palm’s impending earnings release (no surprise there) and no claims that AT&T has delayed the launch of the Pre and Pixi (no clarification on Plus variants here, but we have no reason to believe they’re not).

Not only is Misek claiming that AT&T is pushing the date back, possibly to June or July, but he also says that AT&T has slashed order numbers for the handsets. The most obvious headwind to Palm at this point is the lackluster performance on Verizon, but Misek also claims that AT&T trepidation has been amplified by “a long list of technical issues” with the phones. Additionally, he says that AT&T is cutting their planned marketing budget for the Palm devices, which would make sense if there are going to be fewer to go around.

All around, not good news, though we should note that this is all from one analyst, so you should be setting aside some obligatory salt to take with your next meal. Misek did have one ominous statement that we found to be particularly chilling (but not at all surprising): Palm’s weak sales and continuing technical issues “are starting to impact its relationship with carriers.”

[via: Palm InfoCenter]

READ THE FULL ARTICLE >>

It wasn’t that long ago that Merrill Lynch analyst Vivek Arya was all gung-ho about Palm, placing the stock in the buy column with a $20 price target. But Arya’s optimism seems to have faded, and he has not only moved Palm into the underperform (i.e. sell) column, but has slashed the price target in half to just $10 a share.

While Arya believes that Palm’s webOS is better than most mobile operating systems, he said that “Palm’s superior platform features have not translated into sufficient carrier support and consumer demand, and we are concerned the window of opportunity may be closing as Google’s Android ecosystem gains ground, {Research In Motion] revitalizes its portfolio, iPhone increases its presence, and as Microsoft reboots its efforts with Windows Phone 7.” Additionally, he is concerned by Palm’s cash resources – at the end of the last quarter Palm had just $590 million on hand – money that Palm is burning through incredibly fast.

Arya has also noted something that we have heard a lot of: while Verizon staffers are generally knowledgeable about the Pre Plus and Pixi Plus that their stores carry, they are tending to push the Motorola Droid, HTC Droid Eris, and BlackBerry devices over the newer Palm smartphones. Even if Palm manages to add AT&T and T-Mobile to their carrier partners list, Arya doesn’t expect a significant boost in unit sales. With all that in mind, he has cut his prediction of how many units Palm will move in the coming quarter to 900,000 (down from the 1.1 million previously expected). Arya doesn’t expect Q4 to be much better for Palm, anticipating 1.2 million units shipped in the quarter, a cut of 300,000 from previous estimates.

There is one positive note, and it’s that the heavy advertising campaign that Palm has put on seems to be paying off with stronger sell-through (presumably at Sprint and Verizon stores). But amongst all this doom and gloom, it’s just a glimmer of hope as the expensive campaign is being supported by Palm’s diminishing cash pile.

Read: Barron’s

READ THE FULL ARTICLE >>

The scrum of analysts trying to get their two cents in before Palm’s financial call continues. We won’t note all of them, but when something surprising or interesting pops up, we can’t help but mention it.

While we hope that the financial results on Thursday will give us a better glimpse into how well the Pre has sold in Europe, the analysts over at MKM Partners aren’t hesitating to say they’ve done well. The firm recently upgraded Palm’s stock from Neutral to Buy and raised their price target to $20 (up from $11). What motivates such optimism in the face of a quarter that is expected to have been as good as predicted but still not that great?

Like us at PreCentral, MKM believes that the expected launch of the Pre and Pixi on Verizon next year will open up Palm and webOS to millions more customers, as well as mitigating “the uncertainty of an AT&T relationship.”

MKM also noted something of particular interest: Palm has performed better in Europe than expected and the Pre has been “outselling key HTC and Motorola [Android] models in major markets like the U.K.” If that is the case, it represents a surprising turn, where Palm historically did well in the US and failed in Europe, but is now struggling in the US and succeeding overseas. Right now we have no way of confirming the hypothesis, though we do hope that Palm at least breaks out their sales by carrier or region.

Thirdly, MKM’s analysts believe that the price battle between Amazon and Wal-Mart over Pre and Pixi pricing is not only indicative of the ongoing war between the two mega-retailers, but that it shows strong support for both devices and vindicates “Palm’s strategy of targeting the mass market, rather than tech enthusiasts.”

And in the last note in their four-point position, MKM actually expects that the soon-to-be-reported quarter from Palm will actually exceed expectations. They also expect that Palm will miss their mark in the coming quarter (ending February 2010), but expansion onto new carriers in 2010 will not trouble investors too much.

While Thursday will bring the answers we’ve been waiting for, it is nice to see that analysts have been more positive on Palm this quarter than last. Then again, they may have learned their lesson when Palm blew out the predicted unit sales by hundreds of thousands. But Palm is still a shaky company in a fast-moving industry in a very shaky global economic climate. Right now, investors are looking for signs that the Pre was not just a one-hit-wonder – they want a company that can survive, or at least one that will make an attractive acquisition target.

Thanks to rowehc for the tip!

READ THE FULL ARTICLE >>

At the end of last quarter’s financial results conference call, many analysts were taken aback by Palm’s prediction of lower sales for the quarter that is now drawing to a close. Palm’s stock has dropped some 30% in the last two months after strong launches by competitors on multiple networks, but now it’s looking like Palm’s expectations for their Q2 2010 results were mostly spot on.

Shaw Wu, a senior analyst at Kaufman Brothers, says that his checks through Palm’s supply and retail chain indicate that they’ve sold around 670,000 handsets in the past three months. Those 670,000 units include the Palm Pixi, but considering that launched just a few weeks ago, most of the 670,000 units are Palm Pre phones. The Pre’s higher price (Palm’s price to carriers, not the price charged by retailers) makes it the more lucrative of the two, and while Palm doesn’t break down their sales numbers by device, we expect they’re happy to have the Pre still selling well six months after its launch. While we aren’t certain what affect either event has had, the continuing price cuts for the Pre and the European launch on O2 no doubt blunted the expected US sales drop.

According to the Wall Street Journal, their survey of analysts revealed an average anticipated revenue for the quarter of $265.7 million. While that amounts to an increase of 39% over the same quarter last year, it still results in a projected loss of 32 cents a share, or $45 million total. Though any loss is not a good thing, it is considerably better than the 73 cents a share loss that Palm posted this time last year.

Where Palm goes from here results in mixed calls from analysts. Wu believes many investors have been “overly negative” and that Palm’s expansion onto new carriers in 2010 will help bolster the company’s success. On the other end is Tim Long of BMO Capital, who thinks that pressure from Android and poor response in Europe and to the Pixi “are creating challenges to Palm viability as a smart phone contender.” Who is right? We’ll find out on Thursday.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE >>

While it’s clear that the Pre hasn’t sold quite as well as Palm and Sprint had hoped, that recent $50 price cut that hit the Pre isn’t necessarily a sign that the phone has sold much worse than expected and they have excess units on hand they need to move. As Computerworld notes that price cuts are a fact of life in today’s cutthroat technology market. On the same day that Palm revealed the Pixi and cut the Pre to $150, Apple cut prices on the iPod Touch. With the rate that technology is developed these days, it’s no surprise that prices get cut regularly. They say that once you leave the store with your new computer it’ll already be outdated; the same can be easily said for smartphones.

Most analysts have maintained that the Pre is selling well. In fact, Ramon Llamas of IDC market research said that “If you want to see inventory really move, then price the smartphone below $100.” To him, the price cut is a sign that Palm and Sprint are positioning themselves to be competitive against the $99 iPhone 3G going into the holiday season.

Analyst Jeffery Kagan agreed, saying, “No one Palm device will be a major breakthrough for any single carrier, and there might be modest sales from every carrier, but taken altogether those sales will show that Palm can be a strong company again.” Of course, first Palm has to get the Pre and Pixi (or other webOS phones) onto other carriers.

Thanks to Daniel for the tip!

READ THE FULL ARTICLE >>

Yes, we know, some analysts are just clueless, it makes us wonder how anybody believes them. But hey, somebody has to do the guessing, right? Well, here we go with more about analysts, guessing, and a date that a lot of us have been waiting for.

September 17, 2009 at 1:30 PM Pacific Time, is that [...]

READ THE FULL ARTICLE >>

As Annie mentioned last week, Palm has announced that their first quarter fiscal year 2010 financial results will be announced at 4 PM EST on Thursday, September 17. Following that will be a public conference call at 4:30 PM EST, hosted by Palm CEO Jon Rubinstein and CFO Doug Jefferies. Palm’s Investor Relations website has all the details if you’re the sort who enjoys listening to these things live (we are, but we’re also, you know, a Palm-centric website).

It’s the day we’ve all been waiting for. Okay, not really, but it’s still the day on which we could finally find out just how many Pre phones Palm has sold. At least we better find out, lest Palm risk the rioting of tech bloggers and analysts in the streets (they did, after all, dodge the question on their last call). It’ll be a rather quiet riot, but a riot nonetheless.

So two weeks until we know and the analysts (and we) can stop wringing our idle hands in fear of Pre sales numbers. Or so we hope.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE >>

One more about analysts, ha, you got to love’em. Some hate the Palm Pre and even dare to called it dead on arrival before it was launch – I’m happy to say he was wrong – and others give the Pre a break. But this time is something good for a change. Analyst Ken Dulaney [...]

READ THE FULL ARTICLE >>

Just grab the salt shaker now, you’ll need it later. We have two new conflicting analyst opinions for you, courtesy of Barron’s. We’ll start with the not-so-good, and it’s a familiar tune. Amir Rozwadowski of Barclays Capital is stating that demand for the Palm Pre “has not re-accelerated following what we believe was a noted downshift in the beginning of July.” His estimates for Pre sales are 500,000 – 550,000 units this quarter (the current quarter ends in two weeks), which will likely amount to a miss of Wall Street consensus estimates of 550,000 units sold. Echoing the thoughts of Ilya Gozovsky, he also believes that Palm’s Eos/Pixie has been delayed and will not be seen this year. Instead, he says that Palm will focus on getting the Pre on more carriers. Rozwadowski has rated Palm as “underweight” (advising investors to ‘lighten’ their portfolio of the stock) and set a $12/share price target.

And now for the rare positive analyst opinions on Palm. Seemingly not upset by Palm’s lack of disclosure about Pre sales numbers, Pacific Crest analyst James Faucette thinks that Pre sales have actually increased as August has progressed. He cites that the better (any) advertising hitting the airwaves and intertubes coupled with strong word-of-mouth and improved supply have contributed to sales this month “trending up slightly sequentially.” Faucette’s previous estimate for the quarter – 750,000 units – does now seem lofty to him, though within reach if Pre sales were to accelerate notably in the coming two weeks. Faucette has rated Palm at “outperform” (the company is expected to do better than Wall Street and corporate estimates) and set a target price of $17.

At Monday’s close Palm was trading at $13.23 after a brutal six percent decline during a global stock sell-off (though the stock did recover much of that loss during Tuesday’s trading). Palm shares have dropped 16% from the June 30 close of $16.58, the stock’s highest close since October 2007.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE >>